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Investigating the effect of climate change in watershed health trend via the Pressure-State-Response framework Case study: Radkan watershed of Razavi Khorasan province
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Atena Nezhadrahim    , Ali Golkarian * , Azar Zarrin |
| Associate Professor, Range and Watershed Management Department, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran |
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Abstract: (1200 Views) |
| Watersheds are socio-ecological systems that can be significantly affected by climate change. Changes in the pattern and amount of precipitation and increase in temperature can increase the vulnerability potential of watersheds. Understanding the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and other aspects at the watershed level is crucial for developing approaches to mitigate or adapt to these effects. Therefore, this research aims to assess the impact of climate change on the health of the Radkan watershed in Razavi Khorasan province. In this study, the health of the watershed was initially evaluated for the historical period of 1990-2014 using the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. Sixteen natural and human criteria were selected and classified into three indices: pressure, state, and response. After calculating the criteria for the 14 studied sub-watersheds, they were standardized and weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Finally, the health of the studied watershed was determined using the PSR framework for the 14 sub-watersheds and classified into five categories: healthy, relatively healthy, moderately healthy, relatively unhealthy, and unhealthy. To investigate the impact of climate change on the health of the watershed, data from the climate model MPI-ESM1.2-HR were used under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The predicted climate data in three future time periods of 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100 were investigated. The results indicated that during the historical period, one sub-watershed was classified as healthy, two sub-watersheds were relatively unhealthy, and the remaining sub-watersheds were moderately healthy. Comparing the health index in the future time periods with the historical period revealed a decrease in health under both scenarios. The average decrease in the time periods of 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario was 8.84, 8.49, and 11.11%, respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the average decrease was 7.33, 13.04, and 9.85% for the same time periods. |
Article number: 2 |
| Keywords: Climate change, Pressure-State-Response framework, Watershed health, Watershed management, Watershed sustainability. |
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Full-Text [PDF 2443 kb]
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
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