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Monitoring and Forecasting the Ecological Trend Changes of the Biseh Dalan Wetland in Borujerd
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Ali Haghizadeh *   , Hafez Mirzapour , Leila Ghasemi |
| Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran |
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Abstract: (55 Views) |
| Wetlands are dynamic and productive ecosystems, recognized as some of the most vital yet threatened environments on Earth for both humanity and nature. This study aimed to monitor and predict ecological changes in the Bisheh Dalan wetland by utilizing various indices, including NDVI, VWR, MNDWI, LSWI, and MVWR. Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellite images with a spatial resolution of 30 meters from 2007 to 2024 were analyzed. The trends in these indices were predicted using the Facebook Prophet model, while their ecological assessment was conducted through the chi-square test and the Mann-Kendall correlation coefficient. The findings revealed that during the initial years of the study period, the vegetation index (NDVI) in the Bisheh Dalan wetland showed lower density. However, recent years have seen an improvement in vegetation cover. Statistical analyses revealed a significant positive correlation between the NDVI and MVWR indices (Kendall's coefficient: 0.784), indicating a strong relationship between vegetation density and moisture conditions in the wetland. In contrast, the weakest association (Chi-square: 0.082) was observed between the LSWI and NDVI indices. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation between the MVWR and MNDWI indices (Kendall's coefficient: -0.778) indicates these indices exhibit contrasting behaviors in response to moisture variations. Projections of change trends until 2030, generated using the Facebook Prophet model, indicate that the current trajectory of ecological changes will persist, though at a reduced intensity. These findings underscore the imperative for immediate attention to integrated water resource management and the implementation of conservation programs to prevent the escalation of the ecological crisis in the Bishe Dalan Wetland. |
Article number: 3 |
| Keywords: Ecological assessment, Borujerd, Bisheh Dalan wetland, Facebook Prophet. |
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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