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Analysis of the Teleconnective Link between the North Sea–Caspian Pattern (NCP) and Precipitation Variability in the Lake Urmia Basin
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Bromand Salahi *    , Ali Shahi |
| University of Mohaghegh Ardabili |
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Abstract: (509 Views) |
| This study investigates the teleconnection patterns between precipitation variability in the Lake Urmia basin and the North Sea–Caspian Pattern Index (NCPI). To this end, monthly precipitation data from five selected synoptic stations were collected from the Iran Meteorological Organization over a 30-year period (1985–2014), and the NCPI was calculated using 500 hPa geopotential height data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Pearson correlation coefficients were computed in R, and spatial patterns were mapped using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) in a GIS framework. Results indicate a dynamic and time-dependent nature of this teleconnection. In November, positive correlations prevail basin-wide, reaching nominal significance (p < 0.05) at three stations: Saqqez (r=0.50), Urmia (r=0.46), and Tabriz (r=0.43). Field significance analysis for November confirms that this coherent response aligns with a basin-scale spatial pattern. During other wet months (February, March, and April), nominally significant links are primarily concentrated in the western and southwestern sub-basins (Mahabad and Saqqez), while no stable statistical response was observed at the Maragheh station. These findings indicate that the alignment of precipitation variability with NCPI values during the cold season corresponds to favorable atmospheric conditions for the intensification and transport of Mediterranean moisture-bearing systems toward northwestern Iran. Considering multiplicity correction constraints (BH-FDR, q_min=0.208), although the coefficients did not reach rigorous significance levels, these exploratory patterns provide novel insights for investigating regional hydroclimatic variability in future studies. |
Article number: 5 |
| Keywords: Correlation Analysis, Lake Urmia Basin, North Sea–Caspian Pattern (NCP), Precipitation, Teleconnection |
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2026/08/28 | Revised: 2026/10/16 | Accepted: 2026/09/26 | ePublished ahead of print: 2026/10/15
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