Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important challenges which have affected various aspects of human life. In this study, first the type of climate was studied at the base period (1979-2009) at two stations of Urmia and Khoy. Climate was also identified according to the classifications of De Martonne and Selyaninov. After assessing the capability of the LARS-WG downscaling model during the base period, two models which were most similar to the base period of the studied regions were selected from general atmospheric circulation models for future studies. Assessing the effects of climate change on rainfall and temperature patterns at the two stations in the period from 2011 to 2040, De Martonne climate classification in the past period for the Urmia station and all scenarios of the two models of HADCM3 and HADGEM1 indicate a semi-arid climate. The results show that under the influence of changes at the Urmia station, the De Martonne drought factor will have an increasing trend and the region will shift from a semi-arid climate in the base period, towards a Mediterranean climate in the future period. According to the Selyaninov climate classification, this coefficient will increase in all scenarios of the two selected models, except for the A2 scenario of the HADGEM1 model. Regional climate will move from dry steppe to wet steppe. At Khoy Station in the base period and all scenarios of the two selected models of HADCM3 and ECHO-G, according to the climatic classification of De Martonne, the climate was dry and influenced by climate change. The De Martonne climate factor will decrease and the region becomes drier. According to the Selyaninov climate classification for all scenarios, the Selyaninov coefficient shows a downward trend. Thus, the climate of the region is desert type and due to increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall, the climate of the region will become drier and more arid in future periods.