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Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Runoff Potential in Kashmar Urban Watershed
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Hadi Memarian *   |
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Abstract: (134 Views) |
| This research aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the amount of runoff generation in the Kashmar urban watershed by employing a combination of Barlow methods. The findings indicate that climate change, resulting from increased greenhouse gas concentrations, has significantly influenced the precipitation patterns and runoff in this semi-arid region. Among the examined General Circulation Models (GCMs) – GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M – the evaluations suggest that the IPSL-CM5A-MR model, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.72, demonstrated higher accuracy in simulating the historical precipitation of the region. The analysis of various climate change scenarios, particularly RCP8.5 (for the period 2070-2100), reveals a substantial decrease in annual precipitation by approximately 41.12 millimeters. The Barlow method, considering the physical characteristics of the watershed such as slope, land cover type, and rainfall nature, predicts that runoff will experience a significant reduction in high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Specifically, under the RCP8.5 scenario, a decrease of 16.7% is projected for the period 2020-2038, and a further decrease of 29.1% for the period 2070-2100. The sub-basin analysis shows that sub-basin A, with an area of 6123 hectares and characterized by E-type land (steep slope and poor vegetation cover), exhibits the highest vulnerability and generated 3351 thousand cubic meters of runoff during the baseline period. The results of the Mann-Kendall test confirm a non-significant decrease in precipitation in most scenarios, except for RCP2.6. Furthermore, a significant linear relationship between annual precipitation and maximum 24-hour precipitation, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.64, was utilized in estimating the amount of runoff. Collectively, these results underscore the critical need for a fundamental revision of water resource management approaches and the development of effective strategies for adapting to the consequences of climate change in arid and semi-arid regions like Kashmar. |
Article number: 5 |
| Keywords: Climate Modeling, Ecosystem Sustainability, General Circulation Model (GCM), Barlow Method, Downscaling, Emission Scenarios. |
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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