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Determining the dynamics of land use changes and the intensity of changes in the Barandozchay watershed, Urmia
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Omid Bonabi Alghoo    , Vahid Verdinejad * , Javad Behmanesh , Tayebeh Irani , Mina Rahimi |
| Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran, Email: v.verdinejad@urmia.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (212 Views) |
| In this study, land use change maps for the Barandoozchay watershed were prepared using TM and ETM+ sensor images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellites for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2016, 2020, and 2024 over 34 years. To predict land use for 2032, the CA-Markov model in the TerrSet software was used. The analysis employed the land use change intensity index and the integrated dynamic degree index (Ktotal) to monitor land use changes. The results indicated that the classified maps were produced with high accuracy and a Kappa coefficient greater than 0.80, indicating good reliability of the analyses. In this study, land use was categorized into six classes: irrigated lands and orchards, rangelands, rainfed lands, residential areas, water bodies, and salt marshes. Analysis of land use changes showed that the most significant changes occurred in residential areas, particularly during the periods 1995-2000 and 1995-2024, with growth rates of 22.66% and 267.35%, respectively. This growth reflects the rapid development of residential and urban areas, likely due to population growth and housing demand in the region. Additionally, during the 2020-2024 period, there was a 0.42% increase in irrigated lands and orchards, possibly due to increased demand for agricultural products and improved agricultural techniques. Predictions for 2032 indicate that the area of residential zones will increase to 95.19 km², and irrigated lands and orchards will increase to 584.64 km², while rainfed lands and rangelands will decrease. Analysis of the integrated dynamic degree index (Ktotal) also showed that the rate of land use change increased during the periods 2016-2020 and 2020-2024, while it decreased during the periods 2000-2005 and 2005-2010. These results underscore the need for sustainable natural resource management and the development of protective measures to control land use changes and maintain the environmental sustainability of the region. |
Article number: 1 |
| Keywords: : Trend Analysis, Landscape Dynamics, Land Use Change, Dynamic Degree Index, Watershed Management |
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
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