|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determining factors affecting farmers' decision-making to adapt to climate change in the Jiroft Plain
|
Saeed Barkhori *   |
| Faculty of Natural Resources, Jiroft University, Kerman, Iran |
|
|
Abstract: (24 Views) |
Different countries, including Iran, have been faced with climate change and its consequences. The agricultural sector due to its dependence on natural resources is most affected by this phenomenon. Therefore, the application of climate change adaptation strategies is an inevitable necessity for all elements of the agricultural sector. In the meantime, the decision-making process of farmers' adaptation to climate change is decision-making is significant to sustain the country's food security. The present study was conducted to develop a socio-psychosocial model of farmers' decision-making for adapting to climate change in the Jiroft Plain. The study population is 30,633 farmers, which 379 farmers were determined as the research sample using the Cochran formula. First, a theoretical model of farmers' adaptation decision-making in the response to climate change was developed using a combination of the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) (climate change assessment, adaptation assessment, and maladaptation) and adaptive capacity (social capital variables, financial potential and human capital), and then evaluated using field data. In this study, the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to estimate the model. The findings showed that the variables of the PMT have a mediating role in the effect of adaptive capacity variables on farmers' adaptation decision-making. Also, adaptation assessment variable was determined as the most important priority variable using an importance-performance analysis. The results show if farmers in the Jiroft plain reach a knowledge-based conviction about the strategies, costs, and effectiveness of climate change adaptation, they will easily cope with the mental-social constraints and make the climate change adaptation decision.
EXTENDED ABSTRACT
Introduction: Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural systems worldwide, with profound implications for countries such as Iran where agriculture is highly dependent on natural resources. Adaptation strategies are essential for mitigating adverse impacts and ensuring food security. Farmers, as primary stakeholders in agriculture, play a crucial role in adapting to changing climatic conditions through their decision-making processes. This study focuses on identifying psychological and social factors influencing farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change in the Jiroft Plain, a key agricultural region in southern Kerman, Iran. Building on the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and concepts of adaptive capacity—including social capital, financial potential, and human capital—this research aims to construct and empirically test a comprehensive decision-making model tailored to farmers' climate adaptation behavior.
Methodology: The study population comprises 30,633 farmers in Jiroft Plain, with a sample size of 379 determined using Cochran’s formula for statistical representativeness. Data collection involved structured surveys designed to capture key variables from the integrated model: climate change appraisal, adaptation appraisal, adaptation deterrence, and adaptive capacity components (social capital, financial potential, and human capital). Measurement validity and reliability were confirmed through confirmatory factor analysis and indicators such as Average Variance Extracted (AVE), Composite Reliability (CR), and Cronbach’s alpha. Structural equation modeling employing Partial Least Squares (PLS-SEM) was utilized to test the theoretical framework, examining direct and indirect effects and mediating roles between variables.
Results and Discussion: The study finds that components of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) significantly mediate the link between farmers’ adaptive capacity and their climate change adaptation decisions. Among adaptive capacity factors, social capital—measured through community participation, village cohesion, and communication with experts—proved especially influential and reliable. Adaptation appraisal emerged as the strongest predictor of decision-making, indicating that when farmers believe in the costs, benefits, and effectiveness of adaptation, they can better overcome psychological (e.g., fear, fatalism) and social (e.g., norms) barriers. This highlights the role of positive cognitive and motivational appraisals in enabling adaptive behavior. Financial potential impacted decisions indirectly via PMT pathways, showing that perceptions of financial capacity matter more than resources alone. Similarly, human capital—such as awareness, self-efficacy, and positive attitudes—strongly supported adaptive action by providing farmers with knowledge and confidence. Statistical analysis confirmed most hypothesized relationships, with a high R² (0.946) for adaptation decisions, affirming the model’s strength. Adaptation deterrents, like fatalistic beliefs or perceived lack of control, had significant negative effects, revealing key psychological and social barriers. Overall, the results underscore the complementary roles of psychological perceptions and social capital in farmer adaptation. They validate the integration of PMT with adaptive capacity as a robust framework for understanding decision-making in vulnerable, semi-arid regions like the Jiroft Plain. Effective interventions should address social networks, financial and cognitive appraisals, and personal capacities to strengthen adaptive outcomes.
Conclusion: This study highlights that increasing farmers’ knowledge of climate change and adaptation options, along with building social networks and trust among farmers and institutions, is key to improving adaptive decision-making in agriculture. Greater awareness fosters better cognitive and motivational understanding of climate risks and adaptation benefits, reducing psychological and social barriers. The findings suggest that policymakers and agricultural extension services should focus on targeted education and outreach to enhance adaptation appraisals and reduce deterrents, encouraging climate-resilient practices. Strengthening social capital—through better communication, participatory activities, and community cohesion—also boosts farmers' adaptive capacity by creating support networks and mutual trust, which ease pressures and promote proactive behavior. The proposed psychological-social model offers a practical framework to understand how farmers make adaptation decisions, especially in vulnerable semi-arid areas like the Jiroft Plain. Future research should apply and refine this model in diverse contexts, considering new technologies, institutional factors, and local capacities to guide more effective and tailored climate adaptation strategies in agriculture.
Ethical Considerations
Data Availability Statement: The datasets are available upon a reasonable request to the corresponding author.
Funding: Financial support: This research was conducted as an independent research.
Authors’ contribution: ..
Conflicts of interest: The authors of this paper declared no conflict of interest regarding the authorship or publication of this article.
|
|
| Keywords: Adaptation, Behavioral Theory, Climate Change, Farmers, South Kerman |
|
|
|
|
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Send email to the article author |
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
