|
Investigating the impact of changing climatic parameters on runoff using the Budyko-Zhang framework (Case study: Parts of QareQom watershed)
|
Solale Kabiri Shah Abad    , Ali Golkarian * , Mohammad Taghi Dastoorani |
| Assistant Professor, Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran |
|
|
Abstract: (204 Views) |
| Climate change is one of the main challenges that has affected human life in recent decades. It plays a significant role in changing runoff due to its effects on temperature and precipitation. Therefore, evaluating this phenomenon is very important for assessing water resources and land management based on sustainable development. This research aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on runoff using the Budyko framework. Four sub-watersheds named Olang Asadi, Ardak Band Sarooj, Zoshk, and Kardeh Dam were selected from the QareQom watershed. Then, using the downscaled temperature and precipitation data of the CORDEX project of the GFDL-ESM2M model, under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the runoff variation was evaluated for the times period of 2006-2100. The Nash-Sutcliffe statistic for the results produced by the Budyko-Zhang model for the studied areas was between 0.72-0.87, which indicated the appropriate performance of this model in runoff estimation. In addition, the results of the GFDL-ESM2M model indicated an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The temperature forecasts from GCM indicated a warmer climate in the future with a significant upward trend and a significant decrease in precipitation with a significant downward trend, both of which play an important role in reducing future runoff. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that the runoff in all the studied areas under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and during the period of 1989-2100 had a downward trend. It can be concluded that the increase in temperature and also the decrease in precipitation in the future can reduce the runoff. |
Article number: 4 |
| Keywords: CORDEX, GFDL-ESM2M model, Mann-Kendall, rainfall change, temperature change |
|
|
Full-Text [PDF 2399 kb]
(36 Downloads)
|
|
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Send email to the article author |
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
